The Three-party Evolutionary Game Under "Re-familization" Family Policies

Shutong Qian
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Abstract

With the development of society and the change of fertility culture, the fertility rate is gradually decreasing around the world, which leads to a lot of problems, so the Chinese government is seeking effective family policies to improve fertility levels. Based on the evolutionary game theory, the article defines the three participants in the evolutionary process of fertility choice and their payoff functions, then constructs a three-party evolutionary game model among individuals, firms and local governments, and finally analyzes the strategic choices of each party under the government-led family policies. The findings suggest that economic policies that directly give cash incentives and tax benefits are more effective in increasing fertility rate and creating a fertility-friendly social environment. Thus, the author suggests that the government should mainly use economic policies to promote the increase of fertility level and solve the social problem of low fertility rate.
“再家族化”家庭政策下的三方进化博弈
随着社会的发展和生育文化的改变,世界范围内的生育率逐渐下降,这带来了很多问题,因此中国政府正在寻求有效的家庭政策来提高生育水平。基于进化博弈论,定义了生育选择进化过程中的三个参与者及其收益函数,构建了个体、企业和地方政府三方进化博弈模型,并分析了政府主导的家庭政策下各方的战略选择。研究结果表明,直接给予现金奖励和税收优惠的经济政策在提高生育率和创造生育友好型社会环境方面更为有效。因此,作者建议政府应主要运用经济政策来促进生育水平的提高,解决低生育率的社会问题。
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