Reliability predictions based on criticality-associated similarity analysis

Abstract

In this paper, the authors describe a methodology that they call criticality-associated similarity analysis (CASA), which systematically develops a reliability prediction by applying the following empirical-based conjecture: the ratio of predicted to demonstrated reliability for a new product (i.e., a product that has never been placed in-service) is equal to the corresponding ratio for a similar in-service product that has both its predicted and demonstrated reliabilities adjusted to reflect all the failure and sneak modes, mechanisms, and root causes of the new product. The CASA methodology is practical and efficient when there is newly designed electronics equipment that is sufficiently similar to in-service electronics equipment that has a demonstrated reliability. The application of this methodology will result in a reliability prediction that is more precise than those obtained by using traditional reliability prediction methodologies.