Election Forecasting in the Caribbean: Reflections from Jamaica 2015-2020

Abstract

This article discusses election forecasting in the Caribbean through the reflective lens of model-based election forecasting in Jamaica between 2015 and 2020 to chart the progress made and to increase public understanding of the issues. Poll-based election forecasting is the dominant modality throughout the Caribbean. Since the death of Carl Stone in Jamaica, polls have been sometimes inaccurate because of methodological limitations. The major parties sometimes do not trust local pollsters. The thriving election forecasting business in the region provided the opportunity to employ other Caribbean pollsters. Model based election forecasting was introduced in Jamaica to complement poll-based forecasting. The model- based election forecasts in 2016 were inaccurate because the JLP tax plan was underestimated. The models used to accurately forecast the 2020 General Election shows that the state of the economy, the state of security, and what the party leaders are like (what they do) are very important to voters. There are historical, political, economic and social similarities between the Caribbean and Latin America so panel data on the macro-economy, homicide and leadership can also be used to forecast elections in these regions despite some major differences.