Getting back to scenario planning: Strategic action in the future of energy Europe

Abstract

Scenario planning is a commonly used method in order to analyse complex aspects of the energy system. Historically it has been an important tool to prepare for long-term action. Today however, due to the deregulated market, it could be assumed that scenario analysis is abandoned. Maybe more (the only) attention is on short-term action. This paper presents a review over the time period of 1970 to 2010 on scenario-planning articles. The overall purpose is to evaluate how historical scenario studies stand in a situation of today's deregulated energy markets. Articles surveyed are published in well-respected and internationally well-spread peer-reviewed journals. Focus is put on 1, when, and by whom, articles have been published 2, for what reasons projects have been taken and with what method 3, what aspect that have been in focus. The articles are also analysed in terms of possible use in today's deregulated situation. Three conclusions are drawn. Firstly, the main use of scenario planning still tends to be a support to political processes. Secondly, three major issues and drivers for change dominate when different aspects of the energy system are analysed in scenario projects: climate change, security in terms of demand/supply and economic development. Thirdly, it is concluded that scenario planning still tend to be of value when analysing the future of the deregulated energy sector in Europe. However, in order to be fully utilized for the future scenario methodology must take into account that energy industry actors are not being controlled by politics as they where during the regulated period.