Yu.G. Saushkin and geographical forecasting

Abstract

Thearticleconsidersthedevelopmentofideasaboutthegeographicalforecastfromthefi publications of Yu.G. Sashkin in the late 60s of the last century to the present day. The focus is on the process of diffusion of innovations launched by Yu.G. Saushkina in geographical science. The article shows how consistently representatives of various geographical disciplines develop the ideas set by Yu. G. Saushkin in relation to the objects of their research. Separate groups of methods and approaches that are most adequate to the geographical tasks being solved are also considered. Based on the proposed KP Kosmachev‘s principles of geographical expertise show the relationship between these important areas of geographical research. Along with the analysis of ideas about forecasting tasks of leading geographers in relation to their research objects, the article gives an idea of the methodological apparatus in this fi developed abroad, which allows signifi expanding the possibilities of geographical forecasting. In particular, the technological forecast schemes proposed by X. are considered.Ozbehanom and a set of methods for predicting scientifi and technological progress according to E. Yanch. Separately, the article considers a set of forecasting methods that are widely used not only in geography, but also in many other scientifi fi The main provisions of foresight analysis with an assessment of their capabilities in relation to solving geographical predictive tasks are considered separately.