Could Facebook Influence Municipal Elections?: Tunisian Case Study

Abstract

Since the beginning of the Arab spring, Tunisians have asked for a new system with fundamental political, social and economic reforms. People have been revolting for dignity, liberty, social equality and for equity between regions through the equal division of wealth. This is why, during the democratic transition, there was a significant focus on the decentralized development, where local authorities are more autonomous, which means that the municipalities will have more authority. On 06 May 2018, the first municipal elections after the revolution took place in Tunisia. These elections were preceded by an electoral campaign where social media were used to debate on different topics related to these elections. This paper aims to investigate if there is a correlation that can be deduced between the posts and reactions on social media, especially on Facebook, and the final results of the elections. To this end, we will make an analysis of the candidates' Facebook pages and the reactions of their followers towards their campaigns in order to understand how far social media insights were significant in the municipal elections results. Results show that either on Facebook or in front of the voting ballot, political parties get the highest number of interactions from citizens, but there is no direct correlation that can help us predict which list will be the most voted for. But when considering independent lists only, results show that their presence in social media and the reactions of citizens to their publications can be representative of their final voting results.