Verification of Rainfall Forecast in Latur District of Marathwada Region of Maharashtra

Journal of Agriculture Research and Technology Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI:10.56228/jart.2022.47104

J. M. Naukharkar, M. G. Jadhav

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Abstract

Rainfall prediction and weather based advisories assist farmers in protecting their crops from weather threats and enhancing their economic benefits by recommending appropriate management techniques depending on weather conditions. In this study verification for rainfall forecast on annual and seasonal basis, for the period of 2015-2020 was done for Latur district. The verification analysis was carried out using various verification techniques, viz., Ratio Score (RS), Critical Success Index (CSI), Hanssen and Kupiers Score (HK), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and usability analysis. The results indicates that, rainfall accuracy reached its highest (88.76%) in 2018. And RS (88.21), CSI (0.75) and HK score (0.75) were observed highest during 2019. Among the seasons, rainfall accuracy was highest (96.91%) during winter season also the ratio score was observed highest during winter season (94.66) indicating the better skill of forecast, while, lowest with monsoon season. The highest HK score (0.66) was recorded in the post-monsoon season and CSI (0.72) in Monsoon season. That indicated good skill of the rainfall forecast during the period, while, poor skill of forecast was found with monsoon season. There is a need to investigate the reliability and suitability of medium-range weather forecasts in order to improve them further

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马哈拉施特拉邦马拉特瓦达地区拉图尔地区降雨预报的验证

降雨预报和基于天气的咨询帮助农民保护他们的作物免受天气威胁，并根据天气情况推荐适当的管理技术，从而提高他们的经济效益。本研究对拉图尔地区2015-2020年的年度和季节降水预报进行了验证。验证分析采用多种验证技术进行，即比率评分(RS)、关键成功指数(CSI)、Hanssen and Kupiers评分(HK)、均方根误差(RMSE)和可用性分析。结果表明，2018年降水精度最高(88.76%)。RS(88.21)、CSI(0.75)和HK(0.75)得分最高。各季节中，冬季降水精度最高(96.91%)，比值得分最高(94.66)，表明预报技术较好，季风季节最低。香港指数最高的是后季风季节(0.66)，而季风季节的CSI指数最高(0.72)。这表明该时期的降水预报技巧较好，而季风季节的预报技巧较差。有必要研究中期天气预报的可靠性和适宜性，以便进一步改进它们

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Journal of Agriculture Research and Technology

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