An iterative Bayes procedure for reliability assessment

Abstract

A method of reliability assessment is suggested. It is Bayesian in that the uncertainty about the unreliability is expressed by means of a prior distribution with a specified upper limit. The method is a hierarchical Bayesian one in that the uncertainty about the limit of prior distribution is also expressed by means of a prior distribution. The data from the development program are incorporated with the prior on the unreliability and with the prior on the upper limit of the prior to obtain a new prior on unreliability. The production data are then used to obtain a revised estimate of the unreliability as well as a modified value for the limit of the prior distribution. This same concept will be carried through when the field data are obtained. The result is a final Bayesian reliability assessment that is iterative in nature and sequentially incorporates data from each of the three stages common to a component development, production, and surveillance program.<>