Struktur Peramalan System Multi-Model untuk pemodelan matematika pada Forecast Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Provinsi Bali

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to develop a product was called Forecasting System Multi-Model (FSM) to determine the best method in the forecasting system by constructing several methods in the form of Graphical User Interface (GUI) Matlab. It was done by all indicator accuration to find the best mathematical model of time series data in a certain period. In the simulation phase, this research used the Human Development Index (HDI) data of Bali Province in 2010 - 2017 to predict the HDI data of Bali in 2018. The methods tested were Moving Average (SMA, WMA and EMA), Exponential Smoothing Method (SES, Brown, Holt, and Winter), Naive Method, Interpolation Method (Newton Gregory), and Artificial Neural Network (Back Propagation). Then the models/methods were evaluated to see the level of accuracy of each method based on the value of MAD, MSE, and MAPE. Based on data simulation result from 10 tested method known that Holt method is most accurate with prediction result of 2018 equal to 67,45 with MAD, MSE, and MAPE respectively equal to 0.22654, 0.075955 and 0.34829.