Methods of analytical and prognostic research of diplomatic missions

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to systematize and characterize methods of information analysis and prognostic methods of political analysis, suitable for use in information and analytical activities of diplomatic missions. The research methodology is based on the use of a set of scientific methods, as well as systemic and structural-functional approaches, which allowed to comprehensively consider the methods of information analysis and prognostic methods of political analysis. The scientific novelty of the obtained results lies in the systematization and generalization of methods of analytical and prognostic research that can be used in the information and analytical activities of diplomatic missions. It is stated that forecasting, especially political, is a complex process, the success and accuracy of which largely depends on the set of methods used for analysis and forecasting. Forecasts are not consistent — they differ in many criteria. It is emphasized that due to a large number of influencing factors, political forecasting is carried out in the form of options, alternatives to development, which describe the probable nature of future events, processes, situations. It is emphasized that the longer the forecast, the greater the likelihood of failure to take into account for various reasons, factors and trends that are not included in the original data in the forecasting process. Therefore, short-term forecasts are the most accurate, so the results of political forecasting will be the most accurate. It is noted that the role of analytical and prognostic methods in the work of diplomatic missions is difficult to overestimate: after all, the analysis of facts is needed not by itself, but to make forecasts of possible events or situations and inform the government. In turn, forecasts are provided for the government to make an adequate international political decision.