Peramalan Jumlah Pengunjung Ciwangun Indah Camp Menggunakan Metode Moving Average Dan Exponential Smoothing

Abstract

Forecasting is an attempt to predict future events using past data. The absence of forecasting techniques at Ciwangun Indah Camp often causes tourist destinations to experience difficulties in the process of preparing work plans and determining the supply of facilities rented by tourist destinations, especially with uncertain numbers of Ciwangun Indah Camp visitors every year. The application of visitor forecasting at Ciwangun Indah Camp is expected to be the basis for planning and as a tool to facilitate the decision making process for tourist destinations. This study aims to determine the forecasting of Ciwangun Indah Camp visitors with the Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing methods and the proper forecasting method to be applied in Ciwangun Indah Camp. The research method used in this study is descriptive and comparative with a qualitative approach. Data collection is done through by direct observation in the field, interview activities, literature study, and past data on the number of visitors in Ciwangun Indah Camp. The results of this study indicate that the Exponential Smoothing method is the most appropriate forecasting method to be implemented in Ciwangun Indah Camp.