FORECASTING FOR THE ARRIVAL OF INTERNATIONAL TOURISTS AFTER TWO YEARS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN INDONESIA

Abstract

Before to the entrance of COVID-19 Indonesia in March  2019, foreign visitor arrivals have shown a positive trend from 2006 to 2019. Coronavirus COVID-19 is having a "catastrophic" effect on Indonesia's tourism industry, particularly in Bali province. The Indonesian province looks to have escaped the pandemic's worst effects. COVID-19 has the most severe effects on public health and the tourism industry, with the most severe economic implications. Although COVID-19 is relatively under control in contrast to other Asian countries, the tightening of travel restrictions has a significant influence on foreign tourist arrivals. With the Omicron variant's extremely high transmission rate, statistical modeling predicts that the number of international tourist visits in Indonesia will continue to fall. Keywords: COVID-19, Indonesia, Tourism Industry.