On the factors and features of fertility dynamics and regional differentiation in post-Soviet Russia

Abstract

After a sharp decline in the birth rate in the crisis 1990s, and its subsequent rise in 2000–2015, starting in 2016, the birth rate has declined again. Its territorial differences are great. These and other problems of demographic development actualize geodemographic research, the results of which are necessary to improve strategic and spatial planning. The article analyzes the course of changes in the fertility process in 2000–2020, typologizes regions in terms of the size and dynamics of the birth rate depending on changes in the total fertility rate and the share of women aged 20-34 in the total population. It evaluates as well the role of the dynamics of real incomes of the population and the effectiveness of the maternity capital program. It is shown that the directions of changes in the rate of population reproduction (growth or decline) in all regions, with significant quantitative differences, have common qualitative features. It is shown that the directions of changes in the rate of population reproduction (growth or decline) in all regions, with significant quantitative differences, have common qualitative features. State statistics data were used. The authors carried out the study using the methods of combined groupings, correlation and economic-cartographic analysis. The results can be used in the practice of government and administrative authorities to differentiate regional policy in accordance with the specifics of the reproduction of the population of the regions.