Prediction of new energy vehicles ownership with PCA-logistic model under peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality

Abstract

New energy vehicles play a pivotal role in the realization of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. The prediction of the ownership of new energy vehicles is of great significance to realize the goal of environmental protection in transportation field. The fluctuations of new energy vehicle ownership data follow a long-term nonlinear trend influenced by complex impact factors where nonlinear relationships are in between. Therefore, it is important to use reasonable and accurate methods to analyze and forecast the new energy vehicle ownership to facilitate the rational formulation of policies. In order to study the change of vehicle ownership under the influence of multiple factors such as GDP, urbanization rate and highway mileage, the method of combining principal component factor analysis and logistic nonlinear model is adopted. The result shows that the nonlinear logistic regression curve obtained has a higher fitting degree with the actual data. According to the industry planning, the number of new energy vehicles in 2035 is about 156 million.