A Method of Safety Risk Analysis for the lower waterways of the Yangtze River

2023 IEEE 6th Information Technology,Networking,Electronic and Automation Control Conference (ITNEC) Pub Date : 2023-02-24 DOI:10.1109/ITNEC56291.2023.10082299

Shukui Zhang, Si Tao, Zhenguo Ding

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Abstract

In order to solve the problem of lack of quantitative research in the risk assessment of navigation safety in the lower waterways of the Yangtze River, a factor analysis method based on 5M model (Management, Machine, Man, Media, Mission factor) is proposed, the main influencing factors of 258 major and 223 minor casualty accidents in the lower waterways of the Yangtze River were analyzed by using this method, the results show that poor visibility, large traffic flow, weak safety awareness of crew and outdated ship equipment are the main factors leading to traffic accidents. The effect of factor analysis based on 5M was evaluated by using the coverage rate and influence rate of main factors of accident, and compared with the statistical analysis; the results showed that the coverage rate of factor analysis was slightly lower than that of statistical analysis, but the impact rate increased by 56.4%. The case study shows that the factor analysis method based on 5M is feasible for the navigation safety risk quantitative analysis of the lower waterways of the Yangtze River.

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长江下游航道安全风险分析方法

为解决长江下游航道航行安全风险评估缺乏定量研究的问题，提出了基于5M模型(Management, Machine, Man, Media, Mission factor)的因子分析方法，利用该方法对长江下游航道258起重大伤亡事故和223起次要伤亡事故的主要影响因素进行了分析，结果表明:能见度差、交通流量大、船员安全意识淡薄和船舶设备落后是导致交通事故的主要因素。采用事故主要因素的覆盖率和影响率评价基于5M的因子分析效果，并与统计分析结果进行比较;结果表明，因子分析的覆盖率略低于统计分析，但影响率提高了56.4%。实例分析表明，基于5M的因子分析法用于长江下游航道航行安全风险定量分析是可行的。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

2023 IEEE 6th Information Technology,Networking,Electronic and Automation Control Conference (ITNEC)

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