The Internationalisation of the Conflict in Libya

Abstract

Libya has been characterised by instability since the Arab Spring. In 2011, Western powers decided to intervene. In spite of stated goals, this violent dispute has been ongoing ever since. In this paper, we seek to answer the following research question: why do certain internationalised violent disputes, specifically new civil wars, remain violent even when the actors involved seek a cessation of hostilities? We utilise a single-outcome case study6 research design and we compare and contrast the involvement of great powers, European leading powers and regional powers. We highlight the use of soft and/or hard foreign policy tools. We distinguish between policy goals and policy tools. We find that the essential interests and policy goals of the analysed powers will unlikely change, but change in the use of their foreign policy tools will likely be a shift towards harder tools, which will exacerbate further the Libyan stabilisation process. Even a coincidence of the stated policy goals of external actors, namely a cessation of hostilities is insufficient to end a new civil war. As long as the policy tools themselves remain un-coordinated between the actors, they counteract one another, and the conflict continues to remain violent.