Optimal energy portfolios with demand prediction and distributed generation sources

Abstract

This paper analyzes the interaction among the costumers and generators in the energy free market and presents a tactic to optimize the interactions benefiting both of them. It is proposed a methodology to choose the contracts that minimizes the risk of energy feeding scheduling non dispatchable sources and a new fuzzy algorithm to predict the costumers demand. The strategy is based on the seasonal behavior of the sources and its complementary connection. Allows the agents to minimizes the uncertainty about generation, avoid financial risk of exposition to the spot market and improve the information to the decision makers. Can be used to help the free clients to choose the best energy source and by the distribution company to manage the energy contracts. At the end the strategy is applied to construct an energy portfolio of distributed generation sources and the benefits are presented.