A house price-at-risk model to monitor the downside risk for the Spanish housing market

Abstract

We present a house price-at-risk (HaR) model that fits the historical developments in the Spanish housing market. By means of quantile regressions we show that a model including quarterly house price growth, a misalignment measure and a consumer confidence index is able to accurately forecast the developments in the Spanish housing market up to two years ahead. We also show how the HaR model can be used to monitor the downside risk.