Efficiency of Weak Signals’ Detection: Interpretive Aspects of Threat Signal Perceiving

Abstract

The problem of many warning systems is the phenomenon of so-called “surprise", involving a failure to spot the symptoms of upcoming undesirable events in time. This often happens despite the presence of technologically advanced detection and monitoring systems. It is believed that the solution to this problem has been solved by the concept of weak signals. However, in many situations, it is noted that methods based on this concept have limited effectiveness, especially in relation to threat signals. The aim of the paper is to propose a modified theoretical as well as methodological approach to the problem of monitoring weak signals, especially for those that contain information about an impending threat. The scientific methods used in the paper include: a questionnaire survey, the observation of cases and their ex-post evaluation, analysis and criticism of source materials, logical analysis and logical construction. Additionally, heuristic methods – the "fresh look" and analogical transfer methods – were used. Deductive reasoning and enumerative induction were incorporated into the above methods. The result of the work is a presentation of the conception of warning signal strength, as well as models related to this problem.