Analysis of Prediction of Current Profit and Interval Fuzzy Profit in the Case of Subsidized Projects

Abstract

The analysis aims at the prediction of the present value of profit from investment in subsidized renewable energy production operating under condition of uncertainty stemming from a priory ignorance on the input side. The state of such uncertainty does not provide the analyst with any objective evidence to construct a rational estimate. The prediction procedures should, therefore, be based on intervals of possible input values. This basic principle is derived from the fact that in terms of such uncertainty there is a better chance to correctly define the intervals in which priori expected inputs are found than to correctly predict a single value. This argument is developed in the methodology, in which the formula for quantifying the profit present value is translated from the language of the arithmetic into the corresponding formula of the interval language. In the application part, the biogas station is a specific representative of the system operating under conditions of mentioned uncertainty on the input side. Significant interval profit points compared to the spot value of current profit provide information about the degree of safety of the investment in terms of its resistance to possible loss; this conclusion is the main original superstructure of the paper.