Hunger Amidst Plenty: World Trends in Undernourishment and Malnutrition

Abstract

Agricultural production in general, and specifically the output of food products, has consistently grown ahead of population in recent decades, thus increasing food output per capita. But food products may be used also for non-food purposes (seed, animal feed, non-food industries) or may be lost or wasted after being produced. There are also people unable to get the food they need, for economic or social reasons, and people who suffer malnutrition due to lack of food or as a consequence of poor health and sanitation. This paper analyses trends in the prevalence of undernourishment (insufficient dietary energy) and malnutrition (stunting, wasting, underweight and overweight) across the developing world. Using existing projections and scenarios the paper also discusses the likely future prospects of hunger and its major cause, extreme poverty. A Technical Appendix explains sources and methods used. Undernourishment and malnutrition in the developing world are rapidly decreasing, though the pace of decrease is very slow in Africa (especially in anthropometric measures of child malnutrition) relative to Asia and Latin America. The world as a whole is on track to meet the Millennium Development Goal of halving by 2015 the prevalence of undernourishment estimated for 1990-92, but this would not yet be achieved until a much later time in regions like Sub-Saharan Africa or South Asia. However, projections suggest that by 2050 and at world level both undernourishment and malnutrition would reach non-significant levels of prevalence (roughly around or below 5%); even in the poorer regions these levels would be achieved at some point between 2050 and 2080, even under very conservative assumptions. The world is thus expected to be on the verge of eradicating chronic hunger for the first time in history. On the other hand, overweight and obesity are on the rise in all continents, amongst children and adults, male and female. The 'food problem' is now including an epidemic of overweight whereas famines are rarer and chronic hunger appears to be on the wane in most countries. Just a few countries report increasing levels of undernourishment or malnutrition, and they are mostly countries afflicted by prolonged violence or facing a collapse of the State apparatus. On the other hand, projections suggest that by 2050, though at the world scale there would be a low prevalence of these problems, some areas or countries may still be suffering from higher levels of both, albeit lower than they suffer now.