Contribution of Simulation Tools to Study Climate Change Effects on Agriculture in an African Country

Abstract

African agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate change. The continuance of agricultural production in regions of the African continent with chronic water shortages depends upon understanding how major crops (such as wheat and maize) are impacted by climate change (i.e. higher temperatures and fluctuating rainfall). In the present study, a four-year field study (2015-2018) was conducted in an African country (Tunisia) to determine how the wheat yield and nitrate leaching were affected by climate change in 2050. DSSAT model was used as a simulation tool. The results of this study show that the wheat yield will decrease significantly by 2050 (decreasing percentage = 28%) due to climate change condition. Also, the simulation results showed that the used model (DSSAT model) is powerful tool for evaluating the effects of climate change on wheat yield and nitrate leaching. Furthermore, it is recommended to apply the adequate fertilizer amounts to enhance wheat yield resistance to future climate change. The findings of this study could be an effective guide to improve wheat management in Tunisia with respect to climate change. Overall, the study can be used to implement the most appropriate strategy of soil and crop management to minimize effects of climate changes on wheat yield.