Econometric models - a method for examining factors of implementation of public-private partnership projects in selected European countries

Abstract

Modern science is based on the study of economic phenomena and tries to quantify them in a measurable way. Econometric models are used for this purpose. The object of this research was to develop econometric models that show the strength of the influence of various factors on the implementation of public-private partnership (PPP) projects in the area of transport infrastructure in France, GB, Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium. The models express the dependence of the value and number of PPP contracts on the value of measurable PPP success factors. Projects with a value of at least EUR40 million were included. A linear model and seven models transformable to linear were used. Four groups of factors were considered as explanatory variables. Fourteen indicators were obtained. Principal components determined based on covariance and correlation matrices were also used. The best models for the number of PPP contracts are linear and hyperbolic I models. For the value of contracts - linear and hyperbolic I and logarithmic models. The best models were indicated taking into account the type of explanatory variables and regardless of the type of explanatory variables.  Nine criteria were used to assess the quality of the models. Factors having a significant impact on the value and number of PPP models were identified from the best models. Factors having no significant influence were also indicated.