The COVID-19 Pandemic and the Incoming Hegemonic Shift

Abstract

—The objective of this paper is to analyze the importance of economic trends in the past four decades to the evolving situation in the hegemonic cycle. The theoretical framework stems largely from the systemic cycle theory. We further the conceptual research agenda which involves growth models in hegemonic analysis. The methodology of the paper relies on available data and projections from WTO, World Bank, and IMF. We will use them to show the extent of the economic hegemonic decline in the USA, and contrast this to its military and political capabilities. The paper will place the trends of the COVID-19 pandemics within the broader historical tendencies including Trump-era protectionism and the extent of the attempted decoupling of the US from the global economy.