중국 주도의 신금융질서 태동과 한국의 대응방향 (The Beginning of the China-Led New Financial Order and Korea's Countermeasures)

Abstract

Korean Abstract: 2016년 들어 AIIB가 운영을 개시하고, 위안화가 IMF의 SDR 통화바스켓에 편입되면서 국제금융질서에서 중국의 위상이 날로 높아지고 있다. 이에 본 연구는 중국 주도의 신금융질서 태동의 의미와 전망, 중국 중심 국제금융기구의 구조와 운영, 위안화 국제화와 통화블록 형성 가능성 등을 분석하였다. 이를 바탕으로 한국의 중장기 정책대응 방향과 함께 기업의 인프라 건설 참여방안, 민간 금융기관의 인프라금융 참여방안, 정부의 정책 지원방향을 제시함으로써 급변하는 국제금융질서에 대한 한국의 대외 입장 정립과 국익 확보에 기여하고자 하였다. English Abstract: The emergence of China in the international financial order can be analyzed in three aspects: strengthening its position within the IMF system led by the West, establishing a new financial order through multilateral development banks (MDBs) like the AIIB and NDB, and the internationalization of the renminbi (RMB). China has steadily demanded an increase in its share in the IMF. Following the effectuation of the reform plan in 2016, China became the third largest member of the IMF and the RMB is now included in the SDR basket. China also succeeded in launching the AIIB by formulating a consensus on the necessity for launching an alternative multilateral development bank in Asia where the ADB had a monopoly. On the other hand, RMB internationalization is executed based on a set of internal and external goals: stabilizing inflation and the engine for internal reform, and consolidating the international status of China. As a result, RMB settlements accounted for approximately 2% in world trade, while investment accounted for 16.6% in 2015. However, the RMB still accounts for only 0.6% of the global bond market, and only 1.1% of global foreign reserves. As such, although the internationalization of the RMB has achieved some degree of success, it is hardly keeping up with the extent to which China's economic power is growing. For the China-led financial order to take root, China should continue to pursue further reforms and openness regarding free convertibility, capital accounts, and the exchange rate. China, however, is maintaining a cautious approach. Some of the reasons for this are as follow. First, there are concerns about an outbreak of financial crisis through the opening up of China's capital account. Second, there are fears that there will be an increase of non-performing loans and decrease of interest rate in the event of non-interference by China's financial authorities. As China also has tried to maintain a managed floating system and to allow capital opening only on an experimental basis, it will not be easy for it to expand its influence in the international financial market in a short period of time. Moreover, as the recent appreciation of the yuan has weakened, the impetus for internationalization of the RMB has weakened.