Climate Change and Our Future: Anticipating Trends and Challenges Using Media Data

Nadezhda Mikova
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Abstract

This paper proposes a multidisciplinary approach to understanding the future perspectives of climate change. First, it analyzes the possibilities of using the media as an information source for anticipating trends and challenges in this area through exploring the topics that have been actively discussed in the news in the recent 5 years. Second, qualitative and quantitative approaches are combined in this study in order to identify trends of different categories: social, technological, economic, environmental, political and values/culture. It allows integrating the results of trends monitoring obtained from qualitative and quantitative sources and create a complex map of trends. Qualitative approach is based on the literature review and consultations with the experts, while quantitative analysis includes collecting the news from Factiva database and processing it in Vantage Point software using bibliometric analysis, natural language processing, statistical analysis and principal component analysis. The results shown that 58% of trends were validated by the news and its contribution to the final trends list accounts for 25% on average, which means that the media can be considered as a useful additional data source for validating and updating trends. The results of this multidisciplinary study can be of interest to researchers, economists, business representatives and policy makers that are involved in the climate change related activities
气候变化与我们的未来:利用媒体数据预测趋势和挑战
本文提出了一种多学科方法来理解气候变化的未来前景。首先,通过对近5年来新闻中积极讨论的话题的探讨,分析了利用媒体作为预测该领域趋势和挑战的信息来源的可能性。其次,本研究结合了定性和定量方法,以确定不同类别的趋势:社会、技术、经济、环境、政治和价值观/文化。它允许整合从定性和定量来源获得的趋势监测结果,并创建一个复杂的趋势图。定性分析是基于文献综述和专家咨询,定量分析包括从Factiva数据库中收集新闻,并在Vantage Point软件中使用文献计量分析、自然语言处理、统计分析和主成分分析进行处理。结果显示,58%的趋势得到了新闻的验证,其对最终趋势列表的贡献平均占25%,这意味着媒体可以被视为验证和更新趋势的有用的额外数据源。这项多学科研究的结果对参与气候变化相关活动的研究人员、经济学家、商业代表和政策制定者很有意义
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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