Simulating the response of a rural acute health-care delivery system to a bioterrorist attack

Abstract

Objectives: This paper demonstrates the applicability of discrete event simulation to planning the response of a rural acute health‐care delivery system to a bioterrorist attack. Simulation results are used to develop observations and recommendations for planning for bioterrorism events in rural settings. Method: The analysis employed two discrete event simulation models, one representing the spread of disease following an attack with a contagious agent (pneumonic plague) and the other representing the care that victims would receive from the acute health‐care delivery system and the resultant stress the attack would put on the health‐care infrastructure. Results: In the scenario simulated in this study, early detection of the attack and subsequent aggressive response by the public health system were projected to reduce the total number of victims in this rural setting from 82 to 27 and to reduce deaths from 43 to 7 when compared with a less timely and less effective response. Early detection also created...