The Application of the COVID-19 Global Economic Impact Simulator in China

Abstract

This paper establishes conceptual foundations for analyzing the economic dimensions of regional or global emerging and endemic infectious disease events, such as the case of Covid-19. The Covid-19 Global Economic Impact Simulator attempts to identify the Covid-19 transmission parameters and forecast its trajectories. The model introduces seven basic indicators - (i) the Covid-19 contagious spread intensity rate (S.I.), (ii) the treatment level for Covid-19 infected cases rate (T); (iii) the number of Covid-19 causalities rate (-C); (iv) the economic wear from the Covid-19 epidemic rate (-Π); (v) the Covid-19 contagious cases multiplier rate (M); (vi) the total economic leaking from the Covid-19 epidemic rate (-Ltotal); and (vii) the economic desgrowth from the Covid-19 epidemic rate (-δ2019-nCoV). Findings show that Covid-19 exhibits parallel spatial and temporal conditions with the related R.N.A. virus family but carries distinct infection signatures and magnitude of virus replication. Covid-19 ferocity can trigger a severe public health emergency in China with significant impacts on the domestic and world economies.