Challenges for the Conventional Deterrence of Pakistan in the Post 2019 Security Situations: Options and Choices

Abstract

The study aims at discussing the changing dynamics of conventional deterrence in South Asia especially after the Pulwama-Balakot incident of 2019. The study is evaluated through Descriptive, Exploratory and Predictive data analysis approach. For elaborating different aspects of the study, both primary and secondary data was used. The study conducted in-depth interviews of the experts on the strategic and nuclear environment of the South Asian region. The study is divided in to three parts.  In first part of the study, India-Pakistan relations since their independence in 1947 have been discussed. It was followed by discussing how Indian military strategic thinking against Pakistan has been changed from being defensive in Sunderji Doctrine (SD) of 1987 to offensive in the Cold Start Doctrine (CSD) of 2004 and then to the Land Warfare Doctrine (LWD) of 2018. The study then continues on discussing how India has crossed the international border line and conducted so-called surgical strikes inside Pakistani territory after a militant attack on the Indian paramilitary troops in Indian Occupied Kashmir (IoK) in 2019 and how Pakistan responded to the Indian aggression with a military operation codenamed “Operation Swift Retort”.  The second part of the study is related to the Indian acquisition of modern sophisticated weaponry from the great powers like US, Israel, Russia etc. and the possible impacts of these weapons systems on the strategic stability of Pakistan. How the weapon systems like Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) system, Rafale fighter jets, Anti-Tank Guided Missiles (ATGM), Nuclear Submarine, P8-I Antisubmarine aircraft, Apache attack helicopter, Spy satellites and the armed Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) will pose threats to Pakistan, was main theme of the second part of the study. The possibility of any future war between India and Pakistan was also discussed in this section.  Third section of the study was related to the possible options for Pakistan to counter the growing Indian conventional superiority. It was discussed that Pakistan should improve its long-range air defense system, improve the speed, lethality and range of its missiles, acquire or develop nuclear submarine and fifth generation aircrafts, improve Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities along with the acquisition of attack helicopters and enhancing the endurance and range of armed UAVs to counter any future Indian aggression. Overall the Indian military modernization, the acquisition and procurement of modern sophisticated weaponry was discussed in the study. How negatively it will impact Pakistan and what options and choices are available with Pakistan to counter it, was the basic theme of the study. It was also thoroughly examined that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are not for wars, but it’s the guarantor of peace in South Asia. It was also examined that Pakistan will never allow any aggression to disturb its strategic stability and will never hesitate to ensure its strategic stability and the basic sovereignty as a state at any cost, even by using its nuclear weapons as a last resort in case of failure of its conventional weapons.