Análises de Balanços Públicos: Quociente do Resultado Orçamentário do Governo Federal. 2000-2009 (Analysis of Public Balances: Quotient of the Federal Government's Budget Outcome. 2000-2009)

Abstract

Portuguese Abstract: Esta pesquisa tem o objetivo de evidenciar os Quocientes do Resultado Orcamentario (QRO) do Governo Federal, apurados nos Balancos Orcamentarios, no periodo de 2000 a 2009 e analisar as suas consequencias na execucao orcamentaria. Os dados historicos do Demonstrativo das Receitas Realizadas e Despesas Empenhadas, Liquidadas e Pagas da Uniao (Orcamentos Fiscal e da Seguridade Social) dos exercicios de 2000 a 2009, foram extraidos do sitio eletronico da Secretaria do Tesouro Nacional (STN). Em termos metodologicos, trata-se de uma pesquisa bibliografica, quantitativa (media aritmetica, desvio padrao, coeficiente de variacao, coeficiente de correlacao e os numeros-indices) e qualitativa. Os resultados revelaram que dos dez anos analisados (2000 a 2009), o Governo Federal apresentou como quociente do resultado da execucao orcamentaria o superavit orcamentario total (receitas executadas superiores as despesas executadas) em nove anos (2000 a 2007 e 2009) e um ano de deficit orcamentario total (2008) ao considerar as receitas e despesas executadas totais. Separadamente, o deficit orcamentario corrente em quatro anos (2001, 2006, 2007 e 2009) e deficit orcamentario de capital no ano de 2008. Foi observado que o Governo Federal deixou de gastar em media, aproximadamente R$ 41 bilhoes, e isto representa a diferenca media entre o que foi arrecadado e gasto no periodo de 2000 a 2009.English abstract: This research aims to highlight the Quotients of the Budget Outcome (QRO) of the Federal Government, verified in the Budgeta ry Balances, in the period from 2000 to 2009, and to analyze their consequences on the budgetary execution. The historical data from the Statement of Generated Revenues and Committed, Liquidated and Paid Expenditures of the Union (Fiscal and Social Security Budgets) of the years 2000 to 2009, were extracted from the electronic website of the National Treasury Office (STN). In methodological terms, it is a bibliographical, quantitative (arithmetic mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, correlation coefficient and indexes) and qualitative research. The results revealed that of the ten years analyzed (2000 to 2009), the Federal Government presented as quotient of the outcome of the budgetary execution the total budget surplus (executed revenues exceeding the executed expenses) in nine years (2000 to 2007 and 2009) and one year of total budget deficit (2008) when taking into account the total executed revenues and expenditures. Separately, the current budget deficit in four years (2001, 2006, 2007 and 2009) and capital budget deficit in the year 2008. It was observed that the Federal Government restrained from spending, on average, approximately R$ 41 billion, and that represents the average difference between what has been collected and spent in the period from 2000 to 2009.