A new approach for seasonal outlook adequacy evaluation

Abstract

In according to the Regulation (EC) No 714/2009 ENTSO-E and the TSO Community strive for a secure, resilient, flexible, adequate and well interconnected pan-European power system, and they are acting unanimously to develop the most suitable responses to the challenges of the energy transition and digital transformation. The publishing of Summer and Winter Outlook, twice per year, and of the annual Mid-term Adequacy Forecast (MAF) report provides a comprehensive information to the Member States in terms of hourly probabilistic assessment of reliability standards, e.g. Loss Of Load Expectations (LOLE), Expected Energy Not Supplied (EENS). With a time horizon between mid-term resource adequacy assessments (1 to 10 years ahead) and short term resource adequacy assessments (week ahead to intraday), the seasonal outlook aims to bridge them. Since the degree of uncertainty decreases in the shorter time horizons, seasonal outlooks can improve the quality of adequacy assessment for the upcoming months compared to yearly assessments. However seasonal outlook degree of uncertainty is quite high, as for instance temperatures, wind and PV cannot be precisely forecasted in this time horizon. Hence, a probabilistic methodology is needed in order to improve seasonal outlook reliability, starting from general approaches already applied for mid-term adequacy assessments. This paper highlights potentiality and challenges of adopting a probabilistic approach in the seasonal outlook process, especially focusing on the use case of Italy.