Transnistrian Settlement in the Context of Geopolitical Confrontation

Abstract

The article deals with the evolution of the Transnistrian conflict resolution through the prism of geopolitical confrontation between Russia and the West (primarily, the European Union), its current state and prospects, taking into account the development of the situation after February 24, 2022. Being situated between the two strategic security actors in Europe, Moldova since the early 2000s has become increasingly dependent on the state of their relations, which had a direct impact on the Transnistrian conflict settlement, complicating the chances for its comprehensive resolution. The growth of confrontation between Russia and the EU led to breaks of the negotiation process and its stagnation. Escalation of the Ukrainian crisis increased pressure on Transnistria and complicated military and political risks in the region. In the current circumstances, there is a real danger of “unfreezing” of the protracted Transnistrian conflict, which seemed almost impossible in the previous geopolitical conditions.