Miriam Marco, E. Gracia, A. López-Quílez, Marisol Lila
{"title":"VECINDARIOS Y PROBLEMAS SOCIALES: UN ACERCAMIENTO DESDE LA ESTADÍSTICA ESPACIAL / [NEIGHBORHOODS AND SOCIAL PROBLEMS: A SPATIAL STATISTICS APPROACH]","authors":"Miriam Marco, E. Gracia, A. López-Quílez, Marisol Lila","doi":"10.2478/9788395609596-023","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The Social Disorganization Theory has extensively analysed the relationship between crime and violence and the social environment where it occurs. The hierarchical Bayesian spatial modelling proposes an advanced methodology to study the risk of social problems in the neighbourhoods. This paper uses this approach to analyse three types of social problems in the city of Valencia: drug-related crime, child maltreatment and intimate partner violence against women. Different hierarchical Bayesian spatial models • Correspondencia/correspondence: miriam.marco@uam.es Financiación/Funding: Este trabajo ha sido financiado por el Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (PSI2017-84764-P y PSI2014-54561-P) y por el Instituto de la Mujer (MUJER2012PI-152). PSICOLOGÍA JURÍDICA Y FORENSE: INVESTIGACIÓN PARA LA PRÁCTICA PROFESIONAL 318 were performed for each of these outcomes, and the influence of the neighbourhood-level variables in the spatial risk of these problems were assessed. The results showed that, regardless of the type of social problem analysed, both in the case of problems that occur in the street, such as drug-related crimes, and in problems that occur behind closed doors, such as child maltreatment and intimate partner violence against women, they show a spatial distribution, i. e., they are not randomly distributed in the city, but there are areas with greater risk than others. In addition, these spatial patterns are related to the neighbourhood characteristics, which would explain the unequal risk in the different areas of the city. Specifically, neighbourhoods with higher concentrated disadvantage and higher immigrant concentration show a higher risk of the different social problems. Risk maps can be very useful to guide local actions, effectively manage the social resources and develop preventive strategies for those neighbourhoods with higher risks.","PeriodicalId":422136,"journal":{"name":"Colección Psicología y Ley","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2020-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Colección Psicología y Ley","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2478/9788395609596-023","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The Social Disorganization Theory has extensively analysed the relationship between crime and violence and the social environment where it occurs. The hierarchical Bayesian spatial modelling proposes an advanced methodology to study the risk of social problems in the neighbourhoods. This paper uses this approach to analyse three types of social problems in the city of Valencia: drug-related crime, child maltreatment and intimate partner violence against women. Different hierarchical Bayesian spatial models • Correspondencia/correspondence: miriam.marco@uam.es Financiación/Funding: Este trabajo ha sido financiado por el Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (PSI2017-84764-P y PSI2014-54561-P) y por el Instituto de la Mujer (MUJER2012PI-152). PSICOLOGÍA JURÍDICA Y FORENSE: INVESTIGACIÓN PARA LA PRÁCTICA PROFESIONAL 318 were performed for each of these outcomes, and the influence of the neighbourhood-level variables in the spatial risk of these problems were assessed. The results showed that, regardless of the type of social problem analysed, both in the case of problems that occur in the street, such as drug-related crimes, and in problems that occur behind closed doors, such as child maltreatment and intimate partner violence against women, they show a spatial distribution, i. e., they are not randomly distributed in the city, but there are areas with greater risk than others. In addition, these spatial patterns are related to the neighbourhood characteristics, which would explain the unequal risk in the different areas of the city. Specifically, neighbourhoods with higher concentrated disadvantage and higher immigrant concentration show a higher risk of the different social problems. Risk maps can be very useful to guide local actions, effectively manage the social resources and develop preventive strategies for those neighbourhoods with higher risks.
社会解体理论广泛地分析了犯罪与暴力之间的关系以及犯罪发生的社会环境。分层贝叶斯空间模型提出了一种先进的方法来研究社区社会问题的风险。本文使用这种方法来分析瓦伦西亚市的三种社会问题:与毒品有关的犯罪、虐待儿童和对妇女的亲密伴侣暴力。•通信/通信:miriam.marco@uam.es Financiación/资助:Este trabajo ha sido financiado por el Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (PSI2017-84764-P y PSI2014-54561-P) y por el Instituto de la Mujer (MUJER2012PI-152)。PSICOLOGÍA JURÍDICA Y forensic: INVESTIGACIÓN PARA LA PRÁCTICA对每一种结果都进行了318次专业分析,并评估了这些问题的空间风险中邻里水平变量的影响。结果表明,无论分析何种类型的社会问题,无论是发生在街头的问题,如毒品犯罪,还是发生在闭门不出的问题,如虐待儿童和亲密伴侣暴力侵害妇女,它们都呈现出空间分布,即它们在城市中不是随机分布的,但有些地区的风险比其他地区更大。此外,这些空间格局与城市的邻里特征有关,这可以解释城市不同区域风险的不平等。具体而言,弱势群体集中度越高、移民集中度越高的社区出现不同社会问题的风险越高。风险地图对于指导地方行动、有效管理社会资源和为风险较高的社区制定预防战略非常有用。