Growing East Asian Trade and Economic Integration: Implications for Economic Relations across the Taiwan Strait

Dan Ciuriak
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Abstract

Economic integration is evolving rapidly in East Asia, driven by a multitude of factors. The most important of these has been the entrenchment of China in the global division of labour and its increasingly important role as an independent engine of growth in the global economy. Business-led East Asian economic integration is now being complemented by a growing web of regional and bilateral free trade agreements within the region. This paper takes up the following questions: How deep is Asian economic integration today and how much further might it go? How does the deepening of regional economic links interplay with globalization? What factors will bear on the evolution of global and regional patterns of trade in the coming years? What are the implications for individual economies of being part of, or not being part of, regional trading agreements? The main conclusions are that the forces driving regional integration in East Asia are far from spent; that the unwinding of global trade imbalances and higher relative costs of transportation will increasingly force East Asia to rely on regional sources of final demand to sustain growth; and that parties to preferential agreements within the region will have an advantage in capturing the expanding intra-regional trade opportunities, although this advantage will be partly offset in the longer-run by continued multilateral trade liberalization that squeezes the margin of preference that regional trade agreements can offer. While many equate greater economic inter-dependence with heightened risk, in reality deep trade and investment ties mitigate risk compared to a world in which there is no or only limited commercial interaction between states. In East Asia, deepening inter-dependence, in practical terms, largely involves deepening commercial ties with mainland China. Recognizing this intuitively, business has already voted with its feet and beaten the path to the Chinese market.
日益增长的东亚贸易与经济一体化:对台湾海峡两岸经济关系的影响
在多种因素的推动下,东亚经济一体化正在迅速发展。其中最重要的是中国在全球劳动分工中地位的巩固,以及作为全球经济独立增长引擎的日益重要的作用。以商业为主导的东亚经济一体化,目前正得到区域内日益扩大的区域和双边自由贸易协定网络的补充。本文探讨了以下问题:当今亚洲经济一体化有多深,还能走多远?区域经济联系的深化如何与全球化相互作用?未来几年,哪些因素将影响全球和区域贸易格局的演变?加入或不加入区域贸易协定对个别经济体有何影响?主要结论是,推动东亚地区一体化的力量远未耗尽;全球贸易失衡的缓解和运输相对成本的上升,将日益迫使东亚依靠区域最终需求来源来维持增长;区域内优惠协定的缔约方在抓住不断扩大的区域内贸易机会方面将具有优势,尽管从长期来看,这一优势将部分地被持续的多边贸易自由化所抵消,这将挤压区域贸易协定所能提供的优惠幅度。虽然许多人将经济相互依赖程度的提高等同于风险的增加,但实际上,与国与国之间没有或只有有限的商业互动相比,深厚的贸易和投资关系会降低风险。在东亚,深化相互依赖实际上主要涉及深化与中国大陆的商业联系。企业直观地认识到这一点,已经用脚投票,开辟了通往中国市场的道路。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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