PSN: Interdependence (Topic)最新文献

{"title":"Global Spillovers of a China Hard Landing","authors":"Shaghil Ahmed, Ricardo Correa, Daniel A. Dias, N. Gornemann, Jasper J. Hoek, Anil Jain, Edith X. Liu, A. Wong","doi":"10.17016/IFDP.2019.1260","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2019.1260","url":null,"abstract":"China?s economy has become larger and more interconnected with the rest of the world, thus raising the possibility that acute financial stress in China may lead to global financial instability. This paper analyzes the potential spillovers of such an event to the rest of the world with three methodologies: a VAR, an event study, and a DSGE model. We find the sentiment channel to be the primary spillover channel to the United States, affecting global risk aversion and asset prices such as equity prices and the dollar, in addition to modest real effects through the trade channel. In comparison, the combined financial and real effects to other advanced and emerging market economies, especially net commodity exporters, would be more consequential due to their larger direct exposure to China and more limited scope of monetary policy to respond to shocks.","PeriodicalId":166531,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Interdependence (Topic)","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125200418","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Interconnectedness and Contagion Analysis: A Practical Framework","authors":"Jana Bricco, TengTeng Xu","doi":"10.5089/9781513516226.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513516226.001","url":null,"abstract":"The analysis of interconnectedness and contagion is an important part of the financial stability and risk assessment of a country’s financial system. This paper offers detailed and practical guidance on how to conduct a comprehensive analysis of interconnectedness and contagion for a country’s financial system under various circumstances. We survey current approaches at the IMF for analyzing interconnectedness within the interbank, cross-sector and cross-border dimensions through an overview and examples of the data and methodologies used in the Financial Sector Assessment Program. Finally, this paper offers practical advice on how to interpret results and discusses potential financial stability policy recommendations that can be drawn from this type of in-depth analysis.","PeriodicalId":166531,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Interdependence (Topic)","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128530075","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Physical Macroeconomics: Part XI – Harmonization of the Global Economy","authors":"V. Bartenev","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3458401","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3458401","url":null,"abstract":"Some of the topical problems of the harmonization of the global economy are outlined.<br><br>Harmony is treated in Physical Macroeconomics as a dynamic balance of all energy and informational factors. Harmony is an objective property of the sustainable development of all living systems.<br><br>Primarily, harmonious economic development means a balanced distribution of world GDP, which includes useful energy and information components. The information component of GDP is increased at the expense of the increased entropy of the environment. Hence, the rapidly growing information potential of the global economy should be primarily directed to the solution of ecological problems (e.g. using increasing information to understand how to deal with such problems).<br><br>The highest stage of biological evolution was the creation of the human brain, which made it possible for people to feel a sense of harmony. Perhaps the electromagnetic oscillations in the brain that reflect harmony of the surrounding world in an encoded form can be decoded in future large-scale brain studies; then this will be a fundamental step towards global harmonization.<br>","PeriodicalId":166531,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Interdependence (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129999104","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Return and Volatility Spillover across Equity Markets Between China and Southeast Asian Countries","authors":"H. Ngo","doi":"10.1108/JEFAS-10-2018-0106","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JEFAS-10-2018-0106","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This paper aims to study the daily returns and volatility spillover effects in common stock prices between China and four countries in Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia).\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The analysis uses a vector autoregression with a bivariate GARCH-BEKK model to capture return linkage and volatility transmission spanning the period including the pre- and post-2008 Global Financial Crisis.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The main empirical result is that the volatility of the Chinese market has had a significant impact on the other markets in the data sample. For the stock return, linkage between China and other markets seems to be remarkable during and after the Global Financial Crisis. Notably, the findings also indicate that the stock markets are more substantially integrated into the crisis.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000The results have considerable implications for portfolio managers and institutional investors in the evaluation of investment and asset allocation decisions. The market participants should pay more attention to assess the worth of across linkages among the markets and their volatility transmissions. Additionally, international portfolio managers and hedgers may be better able to understand how the volatility linkage between stock markets interrelated overtime; this situation might provide them benefit in forecasting the behavior of this market by capturing the other market information.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This paper would complement the emerging body of existing literature by examining how China stock market impacts on their neighboring countries including Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia. Furthermore, this is the first investigation capturing return linkage and volatility spill over between China market and the four Southeast Asian markets by using bivariate VAR-GARCH-BEKK model. The authors believe that the results of this research’s empirical analysis would amplify the systematic understanding of spillover activities between China stock market and other stock markets.\u0000","PeriodicalId":166531,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Interdependence (Topic)","volume":"120 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129202882","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trade in Financial Services Regionalism: Derivatives Clearing and Settlement in Economic Integration Agreements","authors":"G. Papaconstantinou","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3297072","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3297072","url":null,"abstract":"Trade in financial services is integrated through Economic Integration Agreements (EIAs), in addition to the multilateral trading system developed under the WTO. Securities’ clearing and settlement services have nowadays become more important than ever. The latter have gained enormous strategic relevance due to the global regulatory shift towards tasking clearinghouses to mitigate the risks associated with trading of OTC derivatives. This study assesses the liberalization levels of the financial services in the plurilateral trading system. It aims to shed light on the underlying dynamics that could explain the rationale behind international trade treaties. Most importantly, this contribution assesses the relationship between regulation of international trade and regulation of financial market infrastructure in order to bring into the spotlight problematic features that underscore existing silos in WTO Members’ administrations.","PeriodicalId":166531,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Interdependence (Topic)","volume":"345 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124262875","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Functionalism, Fragmentation, and the Future of International (Trade) Law","authors":"J. Trachtman","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.3252637","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.3252637","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000International law addresses the relationship between autarchic national public policy, including but not limited to national economic policy, and international cooperation. This address makes three related points. First, in order to achieve efficient levels and types of international cooperation, it will be necessary to overcome international legal fragmentation, both in international legislation and in international adjudication. Second, WTO dispute settlement has avoided making cross-sectoral trade-offs that would effectively overcome fragmentation, in part because it generally avoids evaluation of regulatory rationales, and in part because its mandate does not allow application of international law beyond the WTO covered agreements. Third, even if we overcame the fragmentation problem in legislation and adjudication, we would still need to move toward majority voting to reach an efficient level of international law-making.","PeriodicalId":166531,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Interdependence (Topic)","volume":"139 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133108549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Towards Deeper Integration Among China, Japan and Korea","authors":"Bo‐Young Choi, S. Y. Lee","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2968281","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2968281","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we analyze the contents of all preferential trade agreements (PTAs) of China, Japan, and Korea whose date of entry into force is prior to February 2015, on the basis of sectoral coverage and legal enforceability. Based on the methodology of Horn et al. (2010), the 52 policy areas covered by the three countries' agreements are classified into two groups, WTO (provisions reconfirming the existing commitments in the WTO agreements and providing for additional obligations) and WTO-X (provisions in areas outside the mandate of WTO). We find that the three countries' coverage of WTO provisions is extensive, while less so for WTO-X. Among the three countries, Korea has the most extensive coverage of WTO provisions, followed by Japan, then China. The legal inflation rate is also low for these provisions. On the other hand, WTO-X provisions show higher legal inflation, implying that these provisions tend to be less legally enforced. Among the three countries, Korea displays the highest coverage of WTO-X areas, followed by Japan, and then China. Overall, the three countries' legal inflation rate is below the world and the EU PTAs average, but higher than the average of US PTAs. Interestingly, Korea and Japan show a broader sectoral coverage and contain higher number of legally enforceable provisions in recent PTAs. While China's PTAs have shown low coverage of deep provisions in the past, more recent PTAs are converging to the depth of Korea's and Japan's PTAs as China began negotiating PTAs with developed countries.","PeriodicalId":166531,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Interdependence (Topic)","volume":"290 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128589755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Industry Interdependency Dynamics in a Network Context","authors":"Ya Qian, W. Härdle, C. Chen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2961703","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2961703","url":null,"abstract":"This paper contributes to model the industry interconnecting structure in a network context. General predictive model (Rapach et al. 2016) is extended to quantile LASSO regression so as to incorporate tail risks in the construction of industry interdependency networks. Empirical results show a denser network with heterogeneous central industries in tail cases. Network dynamics demonstrate the variety of interdependency across time. Lower tail interdependency structure gives the most accurate out-of-sample forecast of portfolio returns and network centrality-based trading strategies seem to outperform market portfolios, leading to the possible ’too central to fail’ argument.","PeriodicalId":166531,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Interdependence (Topic)","volume":"75 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127756775","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Appeal of Independence: Exploring Europe's Way of Political Legitimacy","authors":"A. Vauchez","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2881913","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2881913","url":null,"abstract":"Scholars generally agree that ‘independent institutions’ have become a ubiquitous and pervasive feature of EU polity. The blossoming of regulatory agencies, the critical role of the European Court of Justice, the salient position of the European Central Bank and of the Commission (particularly its powerful and quasi-autonomous DG Comp) have exemplified an overall process of delegation of governmental functions to institutions put at distance from direct diplomatic and electoral ‘pressures’. Yet, most accounts of this ‘rise of the unelected’ have stuck to sector-specific explanations providing idiosyncratic reasons for the ‘functionality’ of statutory independence in the different judicial, monetary, executive branches of EU government. As a result, we still fail to grasp the deep and cross-sectorial entanglement between ‘independence’ and the ‘European project’. This paper brings together recent streams of scholarship in historical sociology, critical legal scholarship and political science and uses them to suggest a renewed narrative of EU polity-formation, whereby ‘independence’ and ‘expertise’ form the very terrain on which Europe’s political capacity and specialised form of authority have been shaped, staged and consolidated.","PeriodicalId":166531,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Interdependence (Topic)","volume":"563 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134332592","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comparing the Global and Merged with the Local and Separate: On a Downside to the Integration of Regions and Nations","authors":"O. Stark","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2707060","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2707060","url":null,"abstract":"This paper looks at the integration of regions and nations through the prism of the merger of populations (societies). The paper employs a particular index of social stress. Stylized examples of the merging of two populations suggest that with integration, the social stress index will increase. The examples form the basis for the development of new formulas for calculating the social stress of an integrated population as a function of the levels of social stress of the constituent populations when apart. The formulas reveal that the social stress of an integrated population is higher than the sum of the levels of social stress of the constituent populations when apart. This raises the distinct possibility that the merging of populations may be a social liability: integration may fail to give the populace a sense of improved wellbeing.","PeriodicalId":166531,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Interdependence (Topic)","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134326087","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}