The Chesapeake Bay Land Change Model: Simulating future land use scenarios and potential impacts on water quality

IF 2.6 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL
Peter R. Claggett, Labeeb Ahmed, Frederick M. Irani, Sarah McDonald, Renee L. Thompson
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

The Chesapeake Bay Land Change Model (CBLCM) is an open-source pseudo-cellular automata land change model tailored for loose coupling with watershed models. The CBLCM simulates infill development, residential and commercial development, natural land and agricultural land conversion, and growth served by sewer or septic wastewater treatment. The CBLCM is unique among land change models by simulating multiple types of development and explicitly accounting for infill development and the spatial patterns of development densities. The CBLCM was used to simulate five future land use scenarios, holding population constant, for all counties within and adjacent to the Chesapeake Bay watershed from 2013 to 2055. Results are presented here for the state of Maryland over the period 2013–2025 to illustrate model functionality and validation. The growth management (GM) scenario achieved the least development and potential impacts to natural and agricultural lands while accommodating the same amount of population growth as the other four scenarios. Scenarios focusing exclusively on natural or agricultural land protection shifted development to unprotected areas resulting in unforeseen water quality consequences. Simultaneously achieving more compact development while protecting the most valued natural and agricultural lands requires a combination of GM and land conservation policies and actions.

切萨皮克湾土地变化模型:模拟未来的土地利用方案及对水质的潜在影响
切萨皮克湾土地变化模型(CBLCM)是一个开源的伪细胞自动机土地变化模型,专为与流域模型松散耦合而定制。CBLCM 可模拟填充式开发、住宅和商业开发、自然土地和农业用地转换,以及通过下水道或化粪池废水处理实现的增长。在土地变化模型中,CBLCM 是独一无二的,它模拟了多种类型的开发,并明确考虑了填充开发和开发密度的空间模式。在人口不变的情况下,CBLCM 模拟了切萨皮克湾流域内及附近所有县从 2013 年到 2055 年的五种未来土地利用情景。本文介绍了马里兰州 2013-2025 年的结果,以说明模型的功能和验证情况。增长管理(GM)方案实现了最少的发展,对自然和农业用地的潜在影响也最小,同时可容纳与其他四个方案相同数量的人口增长。只注重自然或农业用地保护的方案会将开发转移到未受保护的区域,从而造成不可预见的水质后果。在保护最有价值的自然和农业用地的同时实现更紧凑的发展,需要将全球机制与土地保护政策和行动相结合。
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来源期刊
Journal of The American Water Resources Association
Journal of The American Water Resources Association 环境科学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
4.10
自引率
12.50%
发文量
100
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: JAWRA seeks to be the preeminent scholarly publication on multidisciplinary water resources issues. JAWRA papers present ideas derived from multiple disciplines woven together to give insight into a critical water issue, or are based primarily upon a single discipline with important applications to other disciplines. Papers often cover the topics of recent AWRA conferences such as riparian ecology, geographic information systems, adaptive management, and water policy. JAWRA authors present work within their disciplinary fields to a broader audience. Our Associate Editors and reviewers reflect this diversity to ensure a knowledgeable and fair review of a broad range of topics. We particularly encourage submissions of papers which impart a ''take home message'' our readers can use.
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