Biało-ruskij mir. Reaktywacja reintegracyjna w relacjach rosyjsko-białoruskich White-Russian world.

Abstract

The relations between the Russian Federation and Belarus in the 21st century are characterized by dynamics and volatility. The integration processes of both countries, initiated in the 1990s, are an element of the strategy of domination in the post-Soviet area, which is consistently implemented by Russia. The authors conclude that this strategy in the case of Belarus is a kind of mixture of soft power and hard power, and the choice of instruments depends on the stability of the authoritarian regime, which is embodied by Alyaksandr Lukashenka. The rigged presidential elections triggered a wave of protests, leading to the gradual loss of social legitimacy by the Belarusian president. Russia has a dilemma: whether to continue to support Lukashenka, who is losing support, or to look for a “new personal alternative”, a politician that would guarantee the implementation of a “pro-Russian vector” in Belarus’s domestic and foreign policy. Regardless of how the situation develops, Russia’s strategic goal remains to keep Belarus in its sphere of influence using the already existing mechanisms of cooperation between the two countries.