Agonies of pluralism: Germany and the New Right

S. Garnett
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Abstract

G ermany’s centripetal politics won out again in the saga following the federal elections in September 2017. But, despite the outcome a third round of grand coalition under Angela Merkel the emergence of the AfD as a parliamentary party and as the largest party of opposition places beyond doubt the unsustainability of the status quo. Taking just over a million votes from the CDU/CSU and just over half a million from the SPD, as well as 1.5 million votes from previous abstainers, the AfD was the direct beneficiary of GroKo’s diminishing appeal which at 53.4 per cent now barely deserves its predicate. The altered party landscape is the predictable culmination of the misfit between the centrist logic of German politics and the conservative groundswell in public opinion, which has been long in germination but was catalysed by the events of 2015-16. Contrary to The Economist’s reassurances, Germany is not just going through a periodic bout of disorientation. Rather, this is a ‘Republic in ferment’.
多元主义的痛苦:德国与新右派
在2017年9月的联邦选举之后,德国的中心政治再次胜出。但是,尽管安格拉•默克尔(Angela Merkel)领导下的第三轮大联合政府取得了成果,但德国新选择党作为议会政党和最大反对党的出现,无疑表明了现状的不可持续性。德国新选择党从基民盟/基社盟获得了100多万张选票,从社民党获得了50多万张选票,再加上之前的弃权者获得了150万张选票,它是格罗科日益下降的吸引力的直接受益者。格罗科目前的支持率为53.4%,勉强配得上它的预期。可以预见,政党格局的改变是德国政治的中间派逻辑与公众舆论中的保守主义浪潮之间不匹配的结果,这种不匹配早已萌芽,但被2015-16年的事件催化了。与《经济学人》的保证相反,德国不仅仅是在经历周期性的迷失方向。更确切地说,这是一个“发酵中的共和国”。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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