Forecasting Industrial Futures Index Based On Fuzzy Set Time Series

Abstract

The futures market is a complex and unstable market with uncertain factors, which has the characteristics of nonlinear dynamic change. Many factors, including political, social, macroeconomic trends and investor psychology, can cause futures prices to change. In view of some characteristics of futures market, based on the fuzzy set theory, we uses the first-order fuzzy time series model to forecast China's industrial futures index. In this paper, the algorithm and steps of fuzzy time series prediction model are explained in detail. The prediction results show that the fuzzy time series model can be used to predict the price index of industrial futures in the short term with high precision, which proves that the research method and the model established in this paper are practical and effective.