East Asia and the Pacific

Abstract

Overview. The United States has enduring economic, political, and strategic interests in the AsiaPacific region. The region accounts for 25 percent of the global economy and nearly $600 billion in annual two-way trade with the United States. Asia is vital to American prosperity. Politically, over the past two decades, democracy has taken root in and spread across the region. Former authoritarian regimes in the Philippines, South Korea, and Taiwan have been transformed into vibrant democracies. For over a century, U.S. strategic interests have remained constant: access to the markets of the region, freedom of the seas, promotion of democracy and human rights, and precluding domination of the region by one power or group of powers. While major war in Europe is inconceivable for at least a generation, the prospects for conflict in Asia are far from remote. The region includes some of the world’s largest and most modern armies, nucleararmed major powers, and several nuclear-capable states. Hostilities that could involve the United States could arise at a moment’s notice on the Korean peninsula and in the Taiwan Strait. The Indian subcontinent is also a major flashpoint. In each of these areas, war has the potential for nuclear escalation. At the same time, lingering turmoil in Indonesia, the world’s fourth largest country, threatens stability in Southeast Asia and global markets. China is facing momentous social and economic changes, the consequences of which are not yet clear; meanwhile, Taiwan’s future remains an unresolved and sensitive political issue for China’s leadership. The modernization of China’s conventional and nuclear forces continues to move ahead, while transparency on force structure and budgeting continues to lag behind Western standards. At present, Beijing reluctantly tolerates Asia’s de facto security architecture, the U.S. bilateral alliances with Japan, the Republic of Korea, Australia, the Philippines, and Thailand, which support the U.S. forward-deployed presence. Indonesia is important to U.S. regional interests and military strategy. The largest nation in Southeast Asia, stretching 5,000 miles from east to west, the Indonesian archipelago straddles the critical sea lanes of communication that run from the Persian Gulf to Northeast Asia. The combination of size, location, population, and resources has made Indonesia the center of gravity in Southeast Asia and the acknowledged leader of the subregion. Indonesia’s stability is critical in turn to the stability of Southeast Asia and a matter of vital interest to U.S. allies, Australia, the Philippines, and Japan, as well as to friendly Singapore. This paper will focus on four key areas that require early attention by the Bush administration— East Asia and the Pacific