On the Dynamics of Indian GDP, Crude Oil Production and Imports

A. Tiwari
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

This study investigates the static and dynamic causal relationship among income, crude oil production and imports for the Indian economy. The static-short-run Granger causality shows that income and crude oil imports Granger-cause domestic crude oil production. This implies that gross domestic product (GDP) and oil imports contain important information in predicting the production of crude oil not the vice versa. The error correction value −0.415 implies that disequilibrium in GDP will get corrected in the long run by the speed of adjustment of 41.5 per cent in a year. The dynamic analysis reveals that the most exogenous variable is crude oil production as it is mostly dependent on itself, and relatively less is accounted by other two variables; GDP is a relatively less exogenous variable, and crude oil exports fairly good proportion of forecast error. Further, we found that the most endogenous variable is crude oil imports which is mostly dependent on crude oil production.
论印度国内生产总值、原油产量和进口的动态
本研究探讨了印度经济收入、原油产量和进口之间的静态和动态因果关系。静态短期格兰杰因果关系表明,收入与原油进口格兰杰因果关系是国内原油产量的Granger因果关系。这意味着国内生产总值(GDP)和石油进口量包含预测原油产量的重要信息,而不是相反。误差修正值为- 0.415意味着,从长期来看,GDP失衡将以每年41.5%的调整速度得到修正。动态分析表明,原油产量对原油产量的外生影响最大,其对原油产量的依赖程度最大,对其他两个变量的影响相对较小;GDP是一个相对较小的外生变量,而原油出口占预测误差的比例相当好。进一步,我们发现最内生的变量是原油进口量,这主要取决于原油产量。
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