Arctic Shipping: Future Prospects and Ocean Governance

Abstract

The Arctic, despite centuries of speculation, remains one of the world’s last potential shipping frontiers. The maritime potential of the region is alluring as it offers a number of shorter, and potentially more prosperous, trade routes between Europe and Asia. Proving the viability of these routes, however, has not been straightforward; rather it has been the story of few triumphs among many disasters, the most famous of which is the ill-fated Franklin expedition of 1845. The shipwrecks, grave sites, and human remains that now paint the Arctic landscape and ocean floor are proof of the region’s natural prowess and strong will to remain pristine and unconquered by human pursuits of globalization. Thick multi-year ice and a harsh and unpredictable climate have been the major factors limiting development, however this is now changing. Because of natural and human-induced climate change, the Arctic is warming at twice the rate of the global average and with this warming has come a positive feedback loop of melting sea ice—additional black space among a traditionally white landscape—causing enhanced absorption of solar radiation and subsequent warming with continued ice retreat. The open water season has increased by more than five days per decade in the Northwest Passage and by up to 19 days per decade in other regions of the Arctic.1 Being that thick and unpredictable sea ice has historically been the dagger that slayed even the most decorated of Arctic explorers, and the strongest of ships, its retreat would seem to facilitate the long awaited opening of the region for global maritime trade and transport—the shifting of global trade patterns and with that the potential for altered global power dynamics.