Assessment of Geopolitical Influence Based on Climate Change

Abstract

Based on domestic and international research on geopolitical influence, this study constructed an evaluation model that analyzed the factors of hard power, soft power, and climate change on geopolitical influence. After selecting indexes for each of these elements, a Factor Analysis was used to calculate the geopolitical influence of 30 countries, accounting for the impact of climate change influence. The results showed: 1. Climate change has an impact on the shifting landscape of geopolitical influence, but shifts in global power can still be largely related to preexisting factors of influence. 2. There are obvious differences in the degrees of influence among the 30 surveyed countries, and these differences can be divided into four levels. 3. Members in the three climate negotiating groups also have their own hierarchies of influence; for instance, EU countries have three distinct levels, and members in the Umbrella Group vary greatly, as does their stance on climate change. This is even more true for states that are members of the G77 and China group.