COVID-19 Potential To Infect 4.44% Indian Population

Abstract

Background: Quantitative characterisation of any contagious diseases could help in making effective strategy to prevent further spreading of the disease. Despite the rapid research in prevention of spreading COVID-19, yet there is no quantitatively information about spatiotemporal epidemiology and epidemic intensity of COVID-19. Therefore, we aimed to quantitatively characterize spatiotemporal epidemiology and epidemic intensity of COVID-19 in Indian geography by determine it’s infectability rate, efficacy rate, transmission rate and likelihood of total populations to be infected with COVID-19 in India.Method: Novel statistical model was designed to quantitatively characterize spatiotemporal epidemiology and epidemic intensity of COVID-19. A Retrospective Cohort study was carried out online and offline in Indian geography using a COVID-19 transmission questionnaires sheet that comprises five mandatory questions. The collected offline as well as online data was then entered into a Microsoft excel sheet to obtain primary data and secondary data required for the mathematical model to calculate quantitative data of spatiotemporal epidemiology and epidemic intensity of COVID-19 in India geography.Result and Discussion: Total 539 responses were analysed in the current study out of 557 received responses between April-2021 to May-2021. Average reproductive number of secondary cases was found 0.77. Infectability rate of COIVD-19 patient was found 38.11% while healthy person has 21.08% risk of becoming infected if they expose to the Primary case. J-Index and H-Index were found 55.32% and 4.44%, respectively, indicating that COVID-19 disease outbreaks as severe epidemic disease in India and has potential to infect ~4.44% Indian population.Conclusion: Higher infectability rate (38.11%) of COIVD-19 patient and higher efficacy rate (21.08%) of healthy individual to be infected with COVID-19 outbreak it a severe epidemic in India. COVID-19 potential to infect about 4.44% Indian population, at present, COVID-19 already infected ~2.13% Indian population, which is about 50% of the anticipated population to be infected i.e., 4.44%.