Leslie Model-based Population Forecast of Henan Province under the Universal Two-child Policy

Abstract

In recent years, in order to alleviate the social aging problems and enlarge the newborn population, China has gradually adjusted the fertility policy to the Universal Two-child Policy. Future population development in China has also become the focus of a lot of studies. This paper uses the 2010 census data and the Henan Yearbook statistics to revise the fertility parameters in Leslie population forecasting model considering the Universal Two-child Policy. This paper adopts both the original model and the revised one to do the prediction of the future population of Henan Province, and compares the results as to the population development trend and population structure change. Using the revised Leslie model to make population prediction, we can better provide an objective basis for improving social education, employment, pension and other policy adjustment.