THE IMPACT OF GLOBAL CRISES ON THE ECONOMIC SECURITY OF COUNTRIES

Abstract

The article is devoted to the assessment of the impact of global crises on the economic security of the world. The selection of the main macroeconomic indicators is carried out, the economic content of their calculation is given. It is substantiated that the main such indicators are: balance of payments, the ratio of external debt to GDP, exchange rate volatility, the ratio of growth of international reserves and imports, unemployment. According to the needs of a particular economic situation, the list of indicators of early warning of the economic crisis can include a number of other macroeconomic indicators. It is emphasized that the control of the dynamics of indicators will make it possible to timely determine the probability of a systemic economic crisis and to develop effective management solutions to prevent the transition of the crisis from the local to the global state. It is substantiated that the synthesis of a quality system of global economic crisis control will help minimize the likelihood of crisis transition from the national sector to the global by timely detection and assessment of the first negative failures, development and implementation of management decisions to stabilize economic security. An economic and mathematical model for monitoring and assessing the impact of global crises on the economic security of the world has been developed. The model is based on the calculation of an integrated indicator of the number of risks, which describes the critical values of macroeconomic indicators in determining the onset of the economic crisis. Practical implementation of the control model will allow monitoring the implementation of control points of macroeconomic indicators and their calculation, as well as form a basis for developing appropriate management decisions to minimize the devastating effects of the crisis by early detection, prevention of crisis national economy and its transition to the global phase. A matrix of optimal values of the main macroeconomic indicators of world crises is proposed and calculated. The practical approbation of the control model was carried out on the example of the countries that had the largest share of world GDP in 2019. Among the developed countries, the USA (24.5%), Japan (5.8%) and Germany (4.41%) were selected with the largest share of GDP; among developing countries - China (16.8%) and India (3.27%). It is concluded that the most likely sources of economic disruption in the global sense are the United States and India.