Diffusion Models For Predicting Electric Vehicles Market in Morocco

Abstract

Today many countries around the world have adopted Electric Vehicles (EVs) to reduce air pollution, oil consumption and fossil fuel dependence. Morocco is one of these sustainability based committed countries, especially that its transport sector depends on oil, which is entirely imported from outside of the country. In this sense, the aim of this paper is to predict the diffusion of EVs in Moroccan market by three models Gompertz, Logistic and Bass. Then the best model that fits well our data is chosen, based on R-square and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). In addition, we have assessed the interaction between the cumulative sales of EVs and the battery price, using the Generalized Bass Diffusion Model. Results show that the Moroccan market reaches the maximum sales of EVs, after 14 years and the battery cost has a great effect on the market diffusion, a decreasing of the battery price could accelerate the diffusion of EVs market.