A scenario analysis for an optimal pan-European cross-border network development

Abstract

The paper is aimed to assess the impact of a non-optimal development of the European cross-border electricity transmission network. The assessment has been carried out by developing and running a model of the European power system, by means of which we compared scenarios characterized by the developments of cross-border interconnections proposed by the different European TSOs (“proposed expansion”) with the optimal (in terms of least overall cost) developments determined by the model (“optimal expansion”). The assessment, focused on security of supply (in terms of energy not supplied), competitiveness (electricity production costs) and sustainability (CO2 emissions), showed that the “proposed expansion” is clearly sub-optimal, since in the “optimal expansion” case several interconnections are expanded significantly more.