To the question of the importance of combating the shadow economy in Russia

S. Pyankova, M. Kombarov
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Abstract

: In their history, many countries of the world had to go through a stage of stagnation. Thus, the UK faced this problem in the 1960s–1970s, the USA in 1970–1982, and in Russia this stage began in 2013 and continues to this day. The factor that makes it difficult to get out of it is the presence of underdeveloped regions within this country, i.e. the une-venness of its spatial development. This factor, in turn, may be due to some other negative circumstances. The present study is aimed at establishing the key of these circumstances and at developing possible ways to level it. Methods: study of the hypotheses presented in the scientific literature and their verification using regression analysis. Results: it has been established that a number of threats to the economic security of Russia, which includes the une-venness of its spatial development, is a connected chain, the initial link of which is a significant level of the shadow economy, amounting to more than 30% of GDP, due to the high scale of corruption. Conclusions: the main tool to combat the shadow economy in Russia, necessary to ensure its economic security, is the improvement of anti-corruption policy, the main goal of which should be to increase the CPI to 70-85 points. With such a scale of corruption, the level of the shadow economy in the country under study will drop to about 12% of GDP, as a result of which its GRP per capita will be more than 70 thousand US dollars in 2010 prices, i.e. exceed that of many economically developed countries.
关于打击俄罗斯影子经济的重要性问题
当前位置世界上许多国家在历史上都经历过经济停滞阶段。因此,英国在20世纪60 - 70年代面临这个问题,美国在1970-1982年面临这个问题,俄罗斯从2013年开始这个阶段一直持续到今天。使其难以摆脱的因素是国内存在欠发达地区,即其空间发展的不均匀性。这个因素,反过来,可能是由于一些其他的消极情况。本研究的目的是确定这些情况的关键,并制定可能的方法来消除这种情况。方法:研究科学文献中提出的假设,并使用回归分析进行验证。结果:已经确定,俄罗斯经济安全的一些威胁,包括其空间发展的不均匀性,是一个相连的链条,其初始环节是一个相当大的影子经济水平,占GDP的30%以上,由于腐败的高规模。结论:俄罗斯打击影子经济的主要手段是完善反腐败政策,确保其经济安全,其主要目标应该是将CPI提高到70-85点。在这样的腐败规模下,所研究的国家的影子经济水平将下降到GDP的12%左右,其人均GDP将超过7万美元(按2010年价格计算),即超过许多经济发达国家。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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