Quantification of Uncertainties in Pore Pressure Prediction: Is there any one Best Practice?

Abstract

Uncertainties in pore pressure models arises due to a combination of various reasons: poor quality input data, challenging geological settings, dearth of sufficient predrill information, lack of geological understanding are some of the critical ones. Moreover, being a multi-disciplinary effort and in some cases due to a lack of sufficiently experienced resources - some of these challenges can get amplified. However, having an awareness regarding the effect of various geologic parameters on overpressure generation as well as its maintenance or dissipation through time plays a very critical role in influencing our overall interpretation of the ‘uncertainty envelope’. Many times it has been experienced that ‘knowing what we don’t know’ could be a key factor in how good we can quantify these uncertainties.